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We're getting ready to poll voters in Nevada.

October 08,2018 22:14

Mr. Heller memorably said in October 2016, weeks before the presidential election, that he was “100 percent against Clinton, 99 percent against Trump.” But facing a tight race, he has gradually moved closer to the president, and last month received his ...and more »



NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll

A Republican incumbent tries to hold on in Nevada, where Hillary Clinton won.

—%

Dean Heller Incumbent

—%

Undecided

—%

Jacky Rosen Congresswoman

Race details
Results over time
Turnout
Who’s answering
Issues
Crosstabs

Where we’ll call:
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race

Jacky Rosen is a U.S. representative from the Third District, first elected in 2016.

Dean Heller is the incumbent, first appointed in 2011.

Democrats see this as one of their best opportunities to flip a Senate seat. Mr. Heller won his election in 2012 by one percentage point, and he is the only Republican senator up for re-election in 2018 representing a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

Mr. Heller memorably said in October 2016, weeks before the presidential election, that he was “100 percent against Clinton, 99 percent against Trump.” But facing a tight race, he has gradually moved closer to the president, and last month received his endorsement.

If this has improved Mr. Heller’s standing with Trump’s core supporters, other voters remain a question mark, in a state where the president’s approval rating is usually around 40 percent and Hispanics make up more than a quarter of the population.

Ms. Rosen has sought to portray Mr. Heller’s shifting stance on Mr. Trump as opportunism. More recently she attacked his support for an F.B.I. probe of the Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh — even while he continued to support the nomination — as a “charade.” But with Republicans newly energized over the controversy, this is a tricky moment for a relative political novice.

Reflecting the stakes of the race, both candidates have raised big sums: Ms. Rosen about $9.2 million and Mr. Heller about $10.6 million, as of the most recent reporting period.

Previous election results:
2016 President
+2 Clinton
2012 President
+7 Obama

It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
Polls
Rosen
Heller
Margin
SSRS n = 693 lv
47%
43%
Rosen +4
Gravis Marketing 700 lv
47%
45%
Rosen +2
Ipsos 1039 lv
43%
46%
Heller +3
Suffolk University 500 lv
42%
41%
Rosen +1
Public Policy Polling (D.) 528 v
48%
43%
Rosen +5
Suffolk University 500 lv
40%
41%
Heller +1
Gravis Marketing 630 lv
45%
41%
Rosen +4
SurveyMonkey 993 lv
49%
47%
Rosen +2
Public Policy Polling (D.) 637 v
44%
42%
Rosen +2
Mellman Group 600 lv
39%
40%
Heller +1
SurveyMonkey 1332 rv
50%
44%
Rosen +6
Public Policy Polling (D.) 720 v
44%
39%
Rosen +5

Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we’ve spoken to 150 voters, we’ll show you the result of our poll under several different turnout scenarios.

Our poll under different turnout scenarios

Who will vote?
Est. turnout
Our poll result
Our estimate


People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else


People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say


People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness


Every active registered voter


The types of people who voted in 2014


The types of people who voted in 2016



The types of people we’ve reached so far
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.

How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters

18 to 29







30 to 64







65 and older







Male







Female







White







Nonwhite







Cell







Landline








Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. Once we’ve spoken to more voters, we’ll show you other common ways to weight a poll.

Our poll under different weighting schemes

Our poll result
Our estimate

Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016

Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls

Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls


Undecided voters
We haven’t reached enough undecided voters to say much about them yet.

Issues and other questions
We’re asking voters which party they’d like to see control the Senate and who they’d like to vote for as governor.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Approve
Disapp.
Don’t know
Voters




Who would you like to see control the U.S. Senate?

Dem.
Rep.
Don't know
Voters




If the general election for governor were held today, who would you vote for? (Poll question names candidates.)

Dem.
Rep.
Lib./Don't know
Voters




What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable.

Gender

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Female



Male




Age

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
18 to 29



30 to 44



45 to 64



65 and older




Race

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
White



Black



Hispanic



Asian



Other




Race and education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Nonwhite



White, college grad



White, not college grad




Education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
H.S. Grad. or Less



Some College Educ.



4-year College Grad.



Post-grad.




Party

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democrat



Republican



Independent



Another party




Party registration

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democratic



Republican



Other




Intention of voting

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Almost certain



Very likely



Somewhat likely



Not very likely



Not at all likely




Other districts where we’ve completed polls
California 48 Orange County
Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
Kentucky 6 Lexington area
Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
Minnesota 8 Iron Range
West Virginia 3 Coal Country
Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
Texas 23 South Texas
Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
Maine 2 Upstate, Down East Maine
Kansas 2 Eastern Kansas
Florida 26 South Florida
New Mexico 2 Southern New Mexico
Texas 7 Houston and suburbs
California 25 Southern California
New Jersey 7 Suburban New Jersey
Iowa 1 Northeastern Iowa
California 49 Southern California
Texas 32 Suburban Dallas
Pennsylvania 7 The Lehigh Valley
Kansas 3 Eastern Kansas suburbs
California 45 Southern California
New Jersey 3 South, central New Jersey
Nebraska 2 Omaha area
Washington 8 Seattle suburbs and beyond
Michigan 8 Lansing, Detroit suburbs
Virginia 2 Coastal Virginia
Arizona 2 Southeastern Arizona
Iowa 3 Southwest Iowa
Ohio 1 Southwestern Ohio
Michigan 11 Detroit suburbs
Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn.
North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C.
Texas 31 Central Texas, Round Rock

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