Weekly News

We'll resume polling in Texas' 32nd Congressional District soon.

September 20,2018 04:10

It's a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers. To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often ...



NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll

A longtime incumbent faces a youthful challenger. We’ve made
13550 calls, and
154 people have spoken to us so far.

Be cautious with these results. They are heavily weighted compared with most of our polls, which makes them less reliable.

49% ±10

Pete Sessions Incumbent

6%

Undecided

45% ±10

Colin Allred Lawyer

Our poll is a decent result for Republicans so far. It’s still early, though. Each candidate’s total could easily be 10 points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.

Race details
Results over time
Turnout
Who’s answering
Issues
Crosstabs

Where we’ve called in Texas 32
Each dot shows one of the
13550 calls we’ve made. Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race

Colin Allred is a voting rights lawyer and a former N.F.L. linebacker. 46% favorable rating; 13% unfavorable; 41% don’t know

Pete Sessions is the incumbent and current chairman of the House Rules Committee. 41% favorable rating; 45% unfavorable; 14% don’t know

This Dallas-based district gave Hillary Clinton the edge in 2016 even as Mr. Sessions was easily re-elected with no Democratic challenger.

The district has been electing Mr. Sessions, 63, since 2002, and he has been in Congress since 1997. He hasn't had a major challenge since 2004, but he’s now facing a youthful opponent with a compelling personal story.

Mr. Allred, 35, was raised by a single mother in Dallas and played linebacker for Baylor and the Tennessee Titans. He worked as a special assistant in HUD’s office of general counsel during the Obama administration.

Mr. Sessions, who voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, says his opponent would harm the district’s economy with liberal policies like universal health care. Mr. Allred has said: “I think everybody needs to have health care. I grew up with a lot of kids that didn't have health care.”

The district is 48 percent white and 26 percent Hispanic, and Mr. Allred has said he’s sidestepped some issues to avoid being deemed “too black.”

Previous election results:
2016 President
+2 Clinton
2012 President
+16 Romney
2016 House
+52 Rep.

It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
Polls
Allred
Sessions
Margin
GBA Strategies (D.) n = 500 lv
45%
47%
Sessions +2

Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Assumptions about who is going to vote may be particularly important in this race.

Our poll under different turnout scenarios

Who will vote?
Est. turnout
Our poll result
The types of people who voted in 2014
147k
Sessions +5
Our estimate
193k
Sessions +3
People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else
196k
Allred +8
People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say
197k
Sessions +4
People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness
206k
Sessions +6
The types of people who voted in 2016
247k
Even
Every active registered voter
368k
Allred +11

In these scenarios, higher turnout tends to be better for Democrats.
The types of people we’ve reached so far
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.

How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters

18 to 29

1405

3
1 in 468
2%
9%
30 to 64

8664

101
1 in 86
66%
61%
65 and older

3455

50
1 in 69
32%
30%
Male

5607

74
1 in 76
48%
47%
Female

7923

80
1 in 99
52%
53%
White

9586

121
1 in 79
79%
72%
Nonwhite

2760

20
1 in 138
13%
20%
Cell

8051

105
1 in 77
68%

Landline

5479

49
1 in 112
32%


Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, primary vote, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Even after weighting, our poll does not have as many of some types of people as we would like.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:

Our poll under different weighting schemes

Our poll result
Don’t weight by primary vote, like most public polls
Allred +6
Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls
Allred +3
Our estimate
Sessions +3
Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016
Sessions +10

Undecided voters
We haven’t reached enough undecided voters to say much about them yet.

Issues and other questions
We're asking voters whether they support the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), President Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the tax bill. We also asked if they felt the president’s policies had improved their economic situation.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Approve
Disapp.
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
38%
58%
4%

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?

Reps. keep House
Dems. take House
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
44%
53%
3%

Do you support the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico?

Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
63%
29%
8%

Do you support or oppose the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump this year?

Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
33%
55%
12%

Do you support or oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress and signed by the president last year?

Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
47%
43%
10%

Do you agree or disagree that President Trump’s policies have made you and your family’s economic situation better?

agree
disagree
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
57%
42%
1%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

support
oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
47%
47%
6%

If the general election for United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Ted Cruz or Beto O’Rourke?

Beto O’Rourke
Ted Cruz
Don’t know
Voters n = 154
57%
42%
2%

What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.

Gender

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Female n = 80 / 56% of voters
53%
41%
6%
Male 74 / 44%
35%
58%
7%

Age

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
18 to 29 n = 3 / 6% of voters

71%
29%
30 to 44 23 / 18%
54%
40%
6%
45 to 64 78 / 46%
47%
47%
6%
65 and older 50 / 31%
45%
52%
3%

Race

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
White n = 126 / 81% of voters
43%
54%
3%
Black 13 / 9%
54%
29%
17%
Hispanic 5 / 6%
79%
16%
5%
Asian 1 / 1%


100%
Other 2 / 1%
39%
61%


Race and education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Nonwhite n = 21 / 17% of voters
60%
25%
15%
White, college grad 91 / 53%
45%
51%
4%
White, not college grad 35 / 27%
39%
60%
1%

Education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
H.S. Grad. or Less n = 4 / 8% of voters
50%
50%

Some College Educ. 38 / 24%
47%
52%
1%
4-year College Grad. 60 / 39%
49%
44%
6%
Post-grad. 52 / 29%
37%
51%
12%

Party

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democrat n = 47 / 34% of voters
85%
8%
7%
Republican 41 / 24%
2%
98%

Independent 59 / 38%
35%
55%
10%
Another party 4 / 2%
88%
12%


Primary vote

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democratic n = 53 / 27% of voters
89%

11%
Republican 61 / 35%
14%
81%
5%
Other 40 / 37%
43%
53%
4%

Intention of voting

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Almost certain n = 99 / 69% of voters
43%
50%
7%
Very likely 41 / 24%
58%
40%
2%
Somewhat likely 11 / 6%
19%
66%
15%
Not very likely 1 / 1%
100%


Not at all likely 2 / 1%

100%


Other districts where we’ve completed polls
California 48 Orange County
Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
Kentucky 6 Lexington area
Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
Minnesota 8 Iron Range
West Virginia 3 Coal Country
Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
Texas 23 South Texas
Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
Maine 2 Upstate, Down East Maine
Kansas 2 Eastern Kansas
Florida 26 South Florida
New Mexico 2 Southern New Mexico
Texas 7 Houston and suburbs
California 25 Southern California

elections 2018 elections elections in hungary elections in sweden elections 2019 elections in hungary 2018 elections in spain elections usa elections in france elections in poland

Share this article

Related videos

ITP Full Episode (6/24/18)
ITP Full Episode (6/24/18)
Banks Washing Money for Terrorists Leading to U.S. Military Deaths & Injuries - The Ring Of Fire
Banks Washing Money for Terrorists Leading to U...

DON'T MISS THIS STORIES