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We'll resume polling in Arizona's 6th Congressional District soon.

October 12,2018 13:22

It's a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers. To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often ...and more »



NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll

Can a Democratic newcomer take advantage of shifting suburbs? We’ve made
7745 calls, and
86 people have spoken to us so far.

Our poll is just getting started.

55% ±11

David Schweikert Incumbent

13%

Undecided

32% ±11

Anita Malik Businesswoman

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 250 people. We’re at 86.

Where we’ve called:
Each dot shows one of the
7745 calls we’ve made. Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race

Anita Malik is a tech executive and entrepreneur, and a former journalist. 30% favorable rating; 12% unfavorable; 58% don’t know

David Schweikert is a four-term incumbent and a former state lawmaker. 45% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 28% don’t know

It’s a traditionally G.O.P.-friendly district -- Mr. Trump won it by 10 points -- but college-educated suburban voters here have recently been edging toward Democrats.

This race is generally thought to be “likely Republican,” but the Democrats are looking fairly strong in Arizona this cycle, including an encouraging special election result in nearby Arizona 8, which is even more Republican-leaning.

The House Ethics Committee is investigating whether Mr. Schweikert misspent official funds.

Ms. Malik is the daughter of immigrants from India, and she has worked in technology and communications, most recently as a chief operations officer at ClearVoice. She supports transitioning to single-payer health care, paid parental leave and guaranteed paid sick leave.

Mr. Schweikert is considered a member of the House Freedom Caucus. As a member of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, he helped shape the G.O.P. tax overhaul.

As the child “of a birth mother who gave him up for adoption,” he said, he is committed “to protecting and defending the rights of the unborn.”

Previous election results:
2016 President
+10 Trump
2012 President
+21 Romney

Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we’ve spoken to 64 more voters, we’ll show you the result of our poll under several different turnout scenarios.

Our poll under different turnout scenarios

Who will vote?
Est. turnout
Our poll result
Our estimate


People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else


People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say


People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness


The types of people who voted in 2014
197k

The types of people who voted in 2016
304k

Every active registered voter
417k


The types of people we’ve reached so far
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.

How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters

18 to 29

980

6
1 in 163
7%
8%
30 to 64

4569

51
1 in 90
59%
55%
65 and older

2114

29
1 in 73
34%
38%
Male

3494

46
1 in 76
53%
48%
Female

4235

40
1 in 106
47%
53%
White

5616

73
1 in 77
85%
75%
Nonwhite

1185

4
1 in 296
5%
13%
Cell

4873

64
1 in 76
74%

Landline

2856

22
1 in 130
26%


Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Even after weighting, our poll does not have as many of some types of people as we would like.
Once we’ve spoken to more voters, we’ll show you other common ways to weight a poll.

Our poll under different weighting schemes

Our poll result
Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls

Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls

Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016

Our estimate


Undecided voters
About 13 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans.
They are not numerous enough to change the lead in our poll by themselves. But they — and others — could change their minds. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative.)

Issues and other questions

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Approve
Disapp.
Don’t know
Voters n = 86
55%
37%
9%

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?

Reps. keep House
Dems. take House
Don’t know
Voters n = 86
58%
35%
7%

What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.

Gender

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Female n = 40 / 51% of voters
45%
43%
12%
Male 46 / 49%
18%
68%
14%

Age

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
18 to 29 n = 6 / 5% of voters
19%
24%
57%
30 to 44 11 / 15%
52%
42%
6%
45 to 64 42 / 43%
31%
58%
11%
65 and older 27 / 37%
26%
62%
12%

Race and education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Nonwhite n = 7 / 8% of voters
33%
22%
44%
White, college grad 45 / 52%
39%
53%
8%
White, not college grad 28 / 34%
26%
64%
10%

Education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
H.S. Grad. or Less n = 8 / 11% of voters
39%
46%
15%
Some College Educ. 23 / 26%
23%
65%
12%
4-year College Grad. 28 / 37%
35%
48%
17%
Post-grad. 26 / 26%
35%
63%
2%

Party

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democrat n = 20 / 23% of voters
89%
4%
6%
Republican 31 / 36%
4%
94%
2%
Independent 32 / 37%
22%
55%
23%
Another party 1 / 1%
100%



Party registration

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democratic n = 23 / 26% of voters
82%
10%
8%
Republican 37 / 47%
3%
91%
6%
Other 26 / 27%
34%
37%
29%

Intention of voting

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Already voted n = 3 / 3% of voters
25%
75%

Almost certain 58 / 67%
36%
53%
10%
Very likely 18 / 25%
25%
62%
13%
Somewhat likely 1 / 2%


100%
Not very likely 3 / 2%

57%
43%
Not at all likely 3 / 2%
24%
40%
35%

Other districts where we’ve completed polls
California 48 Orange County
Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
Kentucky 6 Lexington area
Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
Minnesota 8 Iron Range
West Virginia 3 Coal Country
Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
Texas 23 South Texas
Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
Maine 2 Upstate, Down East Maine
Kansas 2 Eastern Kansas
Florida 26 South Florida
New Mexico 2 Southern New Mexico
Texas 7 Houston and suburbs
California 25 Southern California
New Jersey 7 Suburban New Jersey
Iowa 1 Northeastern Iowa
California 49 Southern California
Texas 32 Suburban Dallas
Pennsylvania 7 The Lehigh Valley
Kansas 3 Eastern Kansas suburbs
California 45 Southern California
New Jersey 3 South, central New Jersey
Nebraska 2 Omaha area
Washington 8 Seattle suburbs and beyond
Michigan 8 Lansing, Detroit suburbs
Virginia 2 Coastal Virginia
Arizona 2 Southeastern Arizona
Iowa 3 Southwest Iowa
Ohio 1 Southwestern Ohio
Michigan 11 Detroit suburbs
Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn.
Illinois 14 Chicago exurbs
North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C.
New York 1 Eastern Long Island
Texas 31 Central Texas, Round Rock
North Carolina 13 Piedmont Triad
Pennsylvania 16 Northwestern Pa.
Texas Senate The Lone Star State
Tennessee Senate The Volunteer State
Nevada Senate The Silver State

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