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Watch us poll voters in Texas' 32nd Congressional District.

September 20,2018 01:11

It's a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers. To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often ...



NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll

A longtime incumbent faces a youthful challenger. We’ve made
8936 calls, and
99 people have spoken to us. Our most recent calls:

Our poll is just getting started.

48% ±12

Pete Sessions Incumbent

8%

Undecided

44% ±12

Colin Allred Lawyer

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 150 people. We’re at 99.

Race details
Results over time
Turnout
Who’s answering
Issues
Crosstabs

Where we’ve called in Texas 32
Each dot shows one of the
8936 calls we’ve made. Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race

Colin Allred is a voting rights lawyer and a former N.F.L. linebacker. 46% favorable rating; 12% unfavorable; 42% don’t know

Pete Sessions is the incumbent and current chairman of the House Rules Committee. 39% favorable rating; 46% unfavorable; 15% don’t know

This Dallas-based district gave Hillary Clinton the edge in 2016 even as Mr. Sessions was easily re-elected with no Democratic challenger.

The district has been electing Mr. Sessions, 63, since 2002, and he has been in Congress since 1997. He hasn't had a major challenge since 2004, but he’s now facing a youthful opponent with a compelling personal story.

Mr. Allred, 35, was raised by a single mother in Dallas and played linebacker for Baylor and the Tennessee Titans. He worked as a special assistant in HUD’s office of general counsel during the Obama administration.

Mr. Sessions, who voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, says his opponent would harm the district’s economy with liberal policies like universal health care. Mr. Allred has said: “I think everybody needs to have health care. I grew up with a lot of kids that didn't have health care.”

The district is 48 percent white and 26 percent Hispanic, and Mr. Allred has said he’s sidestepped some issues to avoid being deemed “too black.”

Previous election results:
2016 President
+2 Clinton
2012 President
+16 Romney
2016 House
+52 Rep.

It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
Polls
Allred
Sessions
Margin
GBA Strategies (D.) n = 500 lv
45%
47%
Sessions +2

Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we’ve spoken to 51 more voters, we’ll show you the result of our poll under several different turnout scenarios.

Our poll under different turnout scenarios

Who will vote?
Est. turnout
Our poll result
Our estimate


People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else


People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say


People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness


The types of people who voted in 2014
147k

The types of people who voted in 2016
247k

Every active registered voter
368k


The types of people we’ve reached so far
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.

How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters

18 to 29

944

2
1 in 472
2%
9%
30 to 64

5692

65
1 in 88
66%
61%
65 and older

2283

32
1 in 71
32%
30%
Male

3704

48
1 in 77
48%
47%
Female

5218

51
1 in 102
52%
53%
White

6336

79
1 in 80
80%
72%
Nonwhite

1788

13
1 in 138
13%
20%
Cell

5372

66
1 in 81
67%

Landline

3550

33
1 in 108
33%


Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, primary vote, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Even after weighting, our poll does not have as many of some types of people as we would like.
Once we’ve spoken to more voters, we’ll show you other common ways to weight a poll.

Our poll under different weighting schemes

Our poll result
Don’t weight by primary vote, like most public polls

Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls

Our estimate

Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016


Undecided voters
We haven’t reached enough undecided voters to say much about them yet.

Issues and other questions
We're asking voters whether they support the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), President Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the tax bill. We also asked if they felt the president’s policies had improved their economic situation.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Approve
Disapp.
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
33%
60%
6%

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?

Reps. keep House
Dems. take House
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
44%
53%
3%

Do you support the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico?

Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
64%
29%
7%

Do you support or oppose the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump this year?

Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
31%
59%
10%

Do you support or oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress and signed by the president last year?

Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
41%
49%
11%

Do you agree or disagree that President Trump’s policies have made you and your family’s economic situation better?

agree
disagree
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
54%
44%
2%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

support
oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
44%
49%
7%

If the general election for United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Ted Cruz or Beto O’Rourke?

Beto O’Rourke
Ted Cruz
Don’t know
Voters n = 99
58%
40%
2%

What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.

Gender

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Female n = 51 / 59% of voters
50%
42%
9%
Male 48 / 41%
35%
58%
7%

Age

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
18 to 29 n = 2 / 5% of voters

55%
45%
30 to 44 8 / 13%
51%
40%
8%
45 to 64 57 / 51%
42%
52%
6%
65 and older 32 / 32%
50%
45%
5%

Race

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
White n = 81 / 80% of voters
41%
54%
4%
Black 10 / 12%
56%
27%
18%
Hispanic 3 / 4%
84%

16%
Asian 1 / 1%


100%
Other 1 / 1%
100%



Race and education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Nonwhite n = 15 / 17% of voters
60%
18%
22%
White, college grad 61 / 57%
45%
50%
5%
White, not college grad 20 / 23%
32%
66%
3%

Education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
H.S. Grad. or Less n = 3 / 6% of voters
33%
67%

Some College Educ. 22 / 23%
48%
50%
3%
4-year College Grad. 42 / 42%
49%
43%
8%
Post-grad. 32 / 29%
35%
51%
14%

Party

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democrat n = 32 / 35% of voters
81%
9%
9%
Republican 28 / 26%
5%
95%

Independent 35 / 35%
30%
58%
12%
Another party 3 / 4%
100%



Primary vote

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democratic n = 32 / 26% of voters
85%

15%
Republican 42 / 38%
13%
83%
4%
Other 25 / 37%
47%
46%
8%

Intention of voting

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Almost certain n = 67 / 69% of voters
40%
51%
9%
Very likely 26 / 25%
60%
37%
2%
Somewhat likely 4 / 5%

76%
24%
Not very likely 1 / 1%
100%


Not at all likely 1 / 0%

100%


Other districts where we’ve completed polls
California 48 Orange County
Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
Kentucky 6 Lexington area
Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
Minnesota 8 Iron Range
West Virginia 3 Coal Country
Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
Texas 23 South Texas
Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
Maine 2 Upstate, Down East Maine
Kansas 2 Eastern Kansas
Florida 26 South Florida
New Mexico 2 Southern New Mexico
Texas 7 Houston and suburbs

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