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Watch us poll voters in Texas.

October 08,2018 22:20

It's a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers. To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often ...and more »



NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll

Can Democrats turn Texas blue? We’ve made
737 calls, and
14 people have spoken to us. Our most recent calls:

Our poll is just getting started.

71% ±26

Ted Cruz Incumbent

—%

Undecided

29% ±26

Beto O’Rourke Congressman

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 250 people. We’re at 14.

Race details
Results over time
Turnout
Who’s answering
Issues
Crosstabs

Where we’ve called:
Each dot shows one of the
737 calls we’ve made. Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race

Beto O’Rourke is a U.S. representative for Texas’ 16th District, which includes most of El Paso County, first elected in 2012.

Ted Cruz is the incumbent, first elected in 2012.

Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, and has not voted for any Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

The contrast in the candidates could not be more stark: Mr. Cruz is the personification of Tea Party Republican activism, and Mr. O’Rourke is running as an unabashed progressive.

Mr. Cruz finished second to Mr. Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, calling him “utterly amoral” in the final days of the campaign but recently welcoming a coming visit by him for a campaign rally. Mr. Cruz is known for his formidable debating skills and his slashing verbal attacks on opponents. He has not been particularly well liked in the Senate, even among fellow Republicans. Former Speaker John Boehner called him “Lucifer in the flesh.”

Mr. O’Rourke is now a national figure because of his charismatic presence on the campaign trail, embodying the dreams of many Democrats beyond Texas, some who see him as a promising presidential candidate. He is not accepting money from PACs, he has visited every county in the state, and he has emphasized his commitment to bipartisanship. But his positions are well to the left of most voters in the state, and he has struggled to answer accusations that he left the scene of a crash after a drunken-driving incident when he was 26.

The staggering amount of money raised in this race — $23 million apiece in the most recent reporting period, with Mr. O’Rourke receiving much of his donations in small, individual amounts — reflects the intense interest it has attracted.

Previous election results:
2016 President
+9 Trump
2012 President
+16 Romney

It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
Polls
O'Rourke
Cruz
Margin
YouGov n = 881 lv
44%
50%
Cruz +6
Public Policy Polling (D.) 613 v
46%
49%
Cruz +3
Vox Populi Polling 508 lv
50%
50%
Even
Reform Austin (D.) 1161 lv
45%
49%
Cruz +4
Quinnipiac University 807 lv
45%
54%
Cruz +9
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 800 lv
44%
47%
Cruz +3
Ipsos 992 lv
47%
45%
O'Rourke +2
Dixie Strategies 519 lv
42%
46%
Cruz +4
Emerson College 550 rv
37%
38%
Cruz +1
Marist College 759 rv
45%
49%
Cruz +4
Public Policy Polling (D.) 797 v
42%
46%
Cruz +4
Quinnipiac University 1118 rv
43%
49%
Cruz +6
Texas Lyceum 441 lv
39%
41%
Cruz +2
Gravis Marketing 602 lv
42%
51%
Cruz +9
YouGov 821 lv
40%
50%
Cruz +10
YouGov 1200 rv
36%
41%
Cruz +5
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps) (D.) 1000 lv
43%
49%
Cruz +6
Quinnipiac University 961 rv
39%
50%
Cruz +11
Baselice & Associates Inc. (R.) 601 lv
36%
48%
Cruz +12
Public Policy Polling (D.) 861 v
42%
48%
Cruz +6
JMC Enterprises (R.) 575 lv
40%
47%
Cruz +7
Quinnipiac University 1029 rv
44%
47%
Cruz +3
Public Policy Polling (D.) 757 v
37%
45%
Cruz +8

Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we’ve spoken to 136 more voters, we’ll show you the result of our poll under several different turnout scenarios.

Our poll under different turnout scenarios

Who will vote?
Est. turnout
Our poll result
Our estimate


People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else


People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say


People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness


The types of people who voted in 2014
4447k

The types of people who voted in 2016
7913k

Every active registered voter
13158k


The types of people we’ve reached so far
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.

How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters

18 to 29

92

1
1 in 92
7%
9%
30 to 64

512

10
1 in 51
71%
59%
65 and older

133

3
1 in 44
21%
31%
Male

345

8
1 in 43
57%
46%
Female

392

6
1 in 65
43%
54%
White

429

11
1 in 39
79%
63%
Nonwhite

258

1
1 in 258
7%
31%
Cell

737

14
1 in 53
100%


Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
We haven’t gotten enough responses to even start weighting, though we do adjust for whether people say they’ll vote from the start. Our numbers are especially unreliable right now.
Once we’ve spoken to more voters, we’ll show you other common ways to weight a poll.

Our poll under different weighting schemes

Our poll result
Our estimate

Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016

Don’t weight by primary vote, like most public polls

Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls


Undecided voters
We haven’t reached enough undecided voters to say much about them yet.

Issues and other questions
We’re asking voters which party they’d like to see control the Senate and who they’d like to vote for as governor.
We're also asking voters if they support N.F.L. players who kneel in protest during the national anthem, and about their views of players' right to kneel, more generally.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Approve
Disapp.
Don’t know
Voters n = 14
63%
37%


Who would you like to see control the U.S. Senate?

Dem.
Rep.
Don't know
Voters n = 14
22%
71%
7%

If the general election for governor were held today, who would you vote for? (Poll question names candidates.)

Dem.
Rep.
Lib./Don't know
Voters n = 14
15%
78%
7%

Do you support or oppose the actions of N.F.L. players who kneel in protest during the national anthem?

support
oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 14
37%
63%


Do you support or oppose the right of N.F.L. players to kneel in protest during the national anthem?

support
oppose
Don’t know
Voters n = 14
52%
48%


What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.

Gender

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Female n = 6 / 44% of voters
66%
34%

Male 8 / 56%

100%


Age

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
18 to 29 n = 1 / 7% of voters

100%

30 to 44 5 / 35%
21%
79%

45 to 64 5 / 36%
60%
40%

65 and older 3 / 21%

100%


Race and education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Nonwhite n = 2 / 15% of voters

100%

White, college grad 6 / 43%
67%
33%

White, not college grad 6 / 42%

100%


Education

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
H.S. Grad. or Less n = 0



Some College Educ. 6 / 42%

100%

4-year College Grad. 5 / 36%
19%
81%

Post-grad. 3 / 22%
100%



Region

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Major City n = 2 / 15% of voters
49%
51%

Major Suburbs 8 / 58%
25%
75%

Minor City 2 / 14%
50%
50%

Rio Grande/South 0



Rural 2 / 13%

100%


Party

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democrat n = 1 / 7% of voters
100%


Republican 9 / 63%
23%
77%

Independent 3 / 22%
32%
68%

Another party 1 / 8%

100%


Primary vote

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Democratic n = 0



Republican 9 / 64%
22%
79%

Other 5 / 36%
43%
57%


Intention of voting

Dem.
Rep.
Und.
Almost certain n = 12 / 87% of voters
33%
67%

Very likely 1 / 7%

100%

Somewhat likely 1 / 6%

100%

Not very likely 0



Not at all likely 0




Other districts where we’ve completed polls
California 48 Orange County
Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
Kentucky 6 Lexington area
Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
Minnesota 8 Iron Range
West Virginia 3 Coal Country
Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
Texas 23 South Texas
Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
Maine 2 Upstate, Down East Maine
Kansas 2 Eastern Kansas
Florida 26 South Florida
New Mexico 2 Southern New Mexico
Texas 7 Houston and suburbs
California 25 Southern California
New Jersey 7 Suburban New Jersey
Iowa 1 Northeastern Iowa
California 49 Southern California
Texas 32 Suburban Dallas
Pennsylvania 7 The Lehigh Valley
Kansas 3 Eastern Kansas suburbs
California 45 Southern California
New Jersey 3 South, central New Jersey
Nebraska 2 Omaha area
Washington 8 Seattle suburbs and beyond
Michigan 8 Lansing, Detroit suburbs
Virginia 2 Coastal Virginia
Arizona 2 Southeastern Arizona
Iowa 3 Southwest Iowa
Ohio 1 Southwestern Ohio
Michigan 11 Detroit suburbs
Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn.
North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C.
Texas 31 Central Texas, Round Rock

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