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Sound Off: National elections' influence on local real estate

July 24,2016 07:20

A: Looking at historical data from the California Association of Realtors, home prices in California rise less quickly in years with presidential elections. It is not a dramatic difference but a difference nonetheless. According Movoto.com, the year ...



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Rachel Swann
Rachel Swann

A: Looking at historical data from the California Association of Realtors, home prices in California rise less quickly in years with presidential elections. It is not a dramatic difference but a difference nonetheless.
According Movoto.com, the year before an election, California homes prices rose by 6 percent. During an election year, they were up by 4.5 percent and after the election year, they went up 5.3 percent.

One theory is that election years are stressful on the American public and they come with a good deal of uncertainty.
Presidential election years can also be a divisive time in our nation. Markets, including the housing market, do not like uncertainty. People are less likely to make large purchases like a new home when there is uncertainty.
Is there a correlation between California homes prices and an election year? It’s hard to say.
Our local market is affected by a host of factors, including job creation, mortgage interest rates, consumer confidence and the quality of schools at the city/neighborhood level.
Will the presidential election have an effect this time around? We’ll have to wait and see.

Jeffrey LaMont, Coldwell Banker,

(650) 740-8808

jeff@jefflamont.com

A: Every election cycle, the real estate market, much like the job market and financial markets, sees some hesitation.
Housing slows, people stay put in their careers, and markets become more volatile.
This is generally due to two parties and two tickets proposing different paths for the nation, which sends an uneasiness to members of both parties. This has never been more true than during this contentious political cycle.
With an election around the corner that has two candidates posing vastly different ideas for America’s future, people are more nervous and uneasy than ever. We see this in the national market but also our local market.
Though the cost of money has never been lower, we still see hesitation because buyers do not know if their tech jobs are secure. My prediction is we will see some stimulation in the market after the election — regardless of the outcome.

Gregory Onzo,

Vanguard Properties,

(415) 609-5451, greggory@vanguardsf.com

A: Elections have a lot to do with the markets.
This year, there seems to be more fear than I have ever seen in an election, at least in my handful of election cycles.
In speaking with clients, they feel uncertainty about the world in general.
The stock market is up and down, there have been terrorist attacks and global happenings, such as Brexit, are concerning as well.
The two candidates’ ideas on how to handle the economy are dramatically different and I feel people are waiting with bated breath to see how things will play out and what their next move will be. However, rates are low and it’s summer, so you will see a slow down now.
Despite the fact that there are certainly neighborhood pockets seeing explosive numbers and bidding wars, I see it as an incredible opportunity to buy in while the masses are holding back.

Rachel Swann,

Keller Williams Realty,

(415) 225-7743, rachel@theswanngroupsf.com.

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