The two candidates competing in a special House election on Tuesday were locked in an extraordinarily close race, as a rescue operation by President Trump was put to the test by Democrats hoping to claim an upset in the heart of the president's Rust ...
Lamb Conor Lamb
Saccone Rick Saccone
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227,015 votes, 100% reporting (593 of 593 precincts)
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The two candidates competing in a special House election on Tuesday were locked in an extraordinarily close race, as a rescue operation by President Trump was put to the test by Democrats hoping to claim an upset in the heart of the president’s Rust Belt base. Read more here.
In 2016, Mr. Trump won the district by double digits, but the race between Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat, and Rick Saccone, a Republican, had become unexpectedly competitive.
Whoever wins will have to decide soon which district to run in this year. The State Supreme Court threw out Pennsylvania’s current congressional map and recently issued a new map with redrawn boundaries. Tim Murphy, a Republican, resigned from the seat last year after reports that he encouraged a woman, with whom he had an affair, to have an abortion.
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Precinct results are not currently available for Westmoreland County. Precinct results may not match district-wide results.
Shift from 2016 Presidential Election
Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they try to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecast.
Right now, our most likely estimates span to . Our model starts with the assumption that the race is tied and updates as the vote is counted. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.
Our tally of votes comes from results reported by county election officials. It may differ from the totals at the top of the page, which were assembled by The Associated Press. (Right now, our .) Below, our best guess for how many votes each candidate will end up with when all votes are counted...
...and where those votes will come from:
Reported Vote Margin
votes have been counted. leads in that count by .
Estimated Votes Remaining
We think votes remain to be counted. This is a very rough guess. We think leads in that vote by .
Projected Vote Margin
Estimated vote margin
50% of outcomes
Once all the votes have been counted, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady, our forecast is more trustworthy.
Estimated Percentage of Votes Counted
Elections,Midterm Elections (2018),Pennsylvania,House of Representatives