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NFL Week 11 early odds: Chiefs-Rams in Mexico City gets highest over/under in at least 30 years

November 12,2018 18:45

When the Rams and Chiefs meet in Mexico City next week, the two teams might break a record before they even step on the field. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas are fully expecting an offensive explosion and they've set an over-under for the game that reflects ...


When the Rams and Chiefs meet in Mexico City next week, the two teams might break a record before they even step on the field. 
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas are fully expecting an offensive explosion and they've set an over-under for the game that reflects that. The showdown between Kansas City and Los Angeles has opened with an over/under of 64 points, which marks just the third time this century that an NFL game has been given a total of 60 or more points. 
According to ESPN.com, the over/under is also the highest total in any NFL game since at least 1986. The total might actually be the highest over/under in NFL history, but it's hard to say for sure because record-keeping as it relates to gambling was spotty during the league's earlier years. 
Of course, it's easy to see why oddsmakers think that these two teams are going to light up the scoreboard at Estadio Azteca. For one, the Chiefs will be rolling into the game with the highest-scoring offense in the NFL (36.3 points per game). The Rams have been almost as impressive this season, averaging 33.2 points, which ranks third in the NFL. 
If you're wondering whether or not you should bet the over or the under, recent history seems to suggest that the over would be the safe bet. There have been a total of six games over the past 15 years that had an over/under of 58 points or more and five of those six games have hit on the over, according to the Pro Football Reference database. One of the games that hit on the over came earlier this year when the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 in a game that had an over/under of 59.5 points.
There's still one game left for Vegas and bettors to cash in on Week 10. It's Monday Night Football between the Giants and 49ers. Sportsline's advanced computer model simulated the game 10,000 times and says one side of the spread has all the value. See which one it is.
Before this week, the honor for the highest known over/under went to a Rams-49ers game played in October 2000. Although the Rams would win the game 34-24, the two teams fell short of hitting the 63-point over/under. 
With that in mind, let's check out the early odds and fascinating trends for all the other games being played in Week 11.  
NFL  Week 11 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. Keep in mind, the point spreads you see below represent the opening odds for Week 10. For the most up-to-date line on each game, you can click here)
Packers (4-4-1) at Seahawks (4-5), Thursday
Opening line: Seahawks, -2.5 points
There are a lot of reasons to like the Seahawks in this game, starting with the fact that they're nearly unbeatable at home in primetime. Since Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have played 16 home primetime games and they've gone 14-2 straight-up and 13-3 against the spread (ATS). The Seahawks are also 4-1 ATS in their past five games. The Packers also have to make an ugly road trip on a short week that no team has EVER been able to overcome. No team flying two or more time zones west for a Thursday game has ever won or covered since the current version of Thursday Night Football came into existence in 2006. Over the past 12 years, this has happened a total of 11 times and the team flying west has gone 0-11 both straight-up and ATS. This includes a Week 4 game from this year where the Vikings didn't win or cover against the Rams in Los Angeles. One reason to like that Packers is that they've won three straight against the Seahawks (3-0 ATS), although all three of those games were played in Green Bay. 
Cowboys (4-5) at Falcons (4-5)
Opening line: Falcons, -4.5 points
If there's one team Jason Garrett has had trouble with during his career, it's the Falcons. Since taking over as Cowboys coach, Garrett has gone 0-3 both straight-up and ATS against Atlanta, including a 27-7 loss last year as a 3.5-point underdog. The Cowboys are also just 1-4 straight-up in road games (2-3 ATS) this year. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean you should bet on the Falcons and that's because they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games. The Falcons are also 3-6 ATS on the year, which is tied for the third worst mark in the NFL. 
Panthers (6-3) at Lions (3-6)
Opening line: Panthers, -3.5 points
The Panthers have had some serious trouble on the road recently, going just 1-5 both straight-up and ATS in their past six games away from Charlotte. Of course, the Lions have also been in kind of a rut lately. Not only are they on a three-game losing streak, but they haven't covered in any of those games. The Panthers have absolutely dominated this series, going 6-1 since 2000, including a 27-24 win last season when they covered as a two-point underdog in Detroit. 
Titans (5-4) at Colts (4-5)
Opening line: Colts, -3 points
One of the biggest locks you can bet on in the NFL is Andrew Luck against the Titans. Since Luck's rookie year in 2012, he's a perfect 10-0 straight-up against the Titans and 7-1-2 ATS. That being said, the Titans have a two-game winning streak in this series and that's because they won and covered in both games last season when Luck was out. The Titans are also 6-3 ATS in 2018, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL (The Colts are 4-4-1). Both of these teams have covered in their past three games. 
Buccaneers (3-6) at Giants (1-7)
Opening line: Pick'em
These two teams have been so bad over the past few weeks, you might want to just stay away from betting on this game. On the Bucs' end, they're 1-6 both straight-up and ATS in their past seven games. They're also just 2-13 straight-up in their past 15 road games (5-9-1 ATS). The Bucs are also 3-6 ATS on the season, which is tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL. On the Giants' end, things aren't much better. Not including Monday's game against the 49ers, the Giants are 4-16 in their past 20 games straight-up (8-12 ATS). They're also just 2-10 in their past 12 home games (3-9 ATS). 
Texans (6-3) at Redskins (6-3)
Opening line: Texans, -3 points
The Texans are currently on a six-game winning streak, which is tied for the longest in the AFC, but they haven't covered the spread in every game during the streak, going just 4-2. However, they are 3-0 ATS in road games since Week 4. On the Redskins' end, they're 6-2 both straight-up and ATS in their past eight home games. The Redskins are also 6-3 ATS on the season, which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. 
Steelers (6-2-1) at Jaguars (3-6)
Opening line: Steelers, -3.5 points
In a rematch from last year's divisional round playoff, the Steelers are going to be out for revenge, which might be easy to get based on how the Jaguars have been playing lately. In their past five games, the Jags are 0-5 both straight-up and ATS, and they'll be playing a Steelers team that is the total opposite, going 5-0 both straight-up and ATS in their past five games. Also, if there's one team you don't want to bet against in a road game, it's the Steelers. In their past 15 games away from Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 13-1-1 straight-up and 10-5 ATS, including 3-0-1 straight-up and 3-1 this year. The Steelers are 6-3 ATS on the season, which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL (The Jags are 3-5-1). 
Bengals (5-4) at Ravens (4-5)
Opening line: NO LINE
The reason there's no line in this game is because no one seems to know who's going to start at quarterback for the Ravens. Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora has reported that the Ravens could decide to give Lamar Jackson his first start ever. Of course, the Ravens starter might not matter and that's because the Bengals have dominated this series lately, going 8-2 straight-up (7-3 ATS) in their past 10 games against Baltimore. That total includes a 34-23 home win this season when the Bengals covered as a one-point favorite. Both of these teams are 4-5 ATS on the season and they're both 1-4 ATS in their past five games. 
Raiders (1-8) at Cardinals (2-7)
Opening line: Cardinals, -3.5 points
The easiest way to lose money in the NFL this year has been betting on Oakland. The Raiders are just 2-7 ATS, which is the worst-mark in the NFL. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five games. Things aren't much better on the road: In their past 10 games away from Oakland, the Raiders are 1-9 straight-up and 2-7-1 ATS. The Raiders have also lost five straight games to NFC teams. On the Cardinals' end, don't be deceived by their 2-7 record, they've been a smart bet over the past few weeks with a 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games. 
Broncos (3-6) at Chargers (7-2)
Opening line: Chargers, -7 points
If there's one team the Chargers have had trouble with over the past few years, it's the Broncos. Since 2011, the Chargers have gone just 3-11 straight-up against Denver and 6-7-1 ATS. Of course, the Broncos have been a disaster in road games over the past few seasons, so that might even things out. Denver is 3-12 straight-up in their past 15 road games and 4-11 ATS. If you don't want to bet the point spread, you could take the Chargers money line, which might be a smart move because they're 15-0 straight-up in the past 15 games where they've been favored by seven or more points (7-8 ATS). As for the Broncos, they're 1-9 straight-up the past 10 times they've been an underdog of seven or more points (4-6 ATS). Two of those losses came this year to the Rams (-7 points) and Chiefs (-8.5 points), but the Broncos did cover in both games. 
Eagles (4-5) at Saints (8-1)
Opening line: Saints, -7 points
The Saints have been the safest bet in the NFL over the past two months. Not only are they 7-2 ATS on the season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL, but they've covered in seven straight games during their eight-game winning streak. The Eagles have basically been the opposite, going just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games. Of course, the Saints haven't exactly been good at covering large point spreads: They're 0-4 ATS the past four times they've been favored by seven or more (3-1 straight-up). This game will actually mark the first time this season the Eagles have been an underdog. In 2017, they went 3-2 both straight-up and ATS as an underdog (6-2 if you include the playoffs)
Vikings (5-3-1) at Bears (6-3)
Opening line: Bears, -3 points
When it comes to covering the spread, betting on the Bears at Soldier Field is usually a smart move. In their past 15 home games, the Bears are 11-4 ATS, and they're also 4-1 ATS at home this season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Of course, as good as the Bears are at home, the Vikings are almost better on the road. In their past 10 games away from Minnesota, the Vikings are 7-2-1 straight-up and 8-2 ATS. The Vikings are also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 primetime games. Minnesota has also won six of the past seven games straight-up in this series. One ugly thing about the Bears is that they're just 1-9 straight-up in their past 10 divisional games, although that one win did come on Sunday over Detroit. 
Chiefs (9-1) vs. Rams (9-1), Monday in Mexico City
Opening line: Rams, -1 point
You already know that the over/under is a sky-high number, so what else do you need to know? Well, let's start with the fact that the 9-1 Rams aren't covering the spread this year quite like the 9-1 Chiefs are. The Rams are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven games while the Chiefs have covered in 11 of their past 13 games dating back to last season. The Chiefs' ATS mark of 8-2 this year is the best in the NFL. The Chiefs have also won six straight games against the Rams dating back to 1997 and they've covered in every single one of those games. On the other hand, the Rams have absolutely dominated AFC teams under Sean McVay. Since hiring McVay in 2017, the Rams have gone 7-0 straight-up against AFC teams and 5-2 ATS. One thing to keep in mind for this game is that it's being played in Mexico City, where the elevation is nearly 7,400 feet (To put that in perspective, the elevation in Denver is 5,280 feet). 
BYES: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers

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