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2018 World Series odds, picks, predictions: Advanced computer model backing Yankees, fading Rockies

October 04,2018 18:15

The 2018 MLB playoffs are off to a fast start with a pair of thrilling Wild Card games already in the books, and now all four division series will get underway on Thursday and Friday. Sportsbooks have updated their 2018 World Series odds, and the Red ...


The 2018 MLB playoffs are off to a fast start with a pair of thrilling Wild Card games already in the books, and now all four division series will get underway on Thursday and Friday. Sportsbooks have updated their 2018 World Series odds, and the Red Sox are now favored at 3-1, followed closely by the Astros at 7-2, Dodgers at 9-2 and Brewers at 7-1.
Before you lock in your 2018 World Series picks on one of the favorites, or on a long shot like the Indians (8-1), Yankees (10-1), Rockies (10-1) or Braves (12-1), be sure to check out the 2018 World Series picks and predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model. 
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, taking into account matchups, injuries, history and other factors that affect the outcome. Now with eight teams remaining, the model has run the numbers for the entire postseason and revealed who to back and who to fade.
We can tell you the model has found value on the Yankees in the latest 2018 World Series odds. The Yankees (10-1) win it all in 14.4 percent of simulations, better than their 9.1 percent implied probably based on Vegas odds.
A division series matchup against the loaded Red Sox has many bettors nervous that the Yankees could get bounced early. But New York had late-season success against Boston, taking two-of-three in the last two series of the season. New York was second in the league in runs scored, and with a loaded lineup featuring Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, the Yankees also finished second in the league in slugging percentage. They're a World Series 2018 value pick you should be all over. 
One team the model is fading: the Rockies. The Rockies (10-1) only win it all in 3.4 percent of simulations, far less than the odds imply. 
Colorado tied for the second-fewest number of wins this season (91) of any team remaining in the postseason and had by far the smallest run differential (+35). 
Colorado will open the playoffs against a red-hot Milwaukee team that comes into the MLB Playoffs 2018 on two full days of rest and riding an eight-game winning streak. Colorado hit just .225 away from Coors Field this season, so the Rockies will need to play much better to win without home-field advantage. There are far better values available in the World Series odds 2018. 
The model has also identified a top value team that wins the 2018 World Series far more often than its odds imply. This must-see selection can be seen over at SportsLine. 
What percentage chance does the SportsLine Projection Model give every team of winning the World Series? And which team is a must-back? Visit SportsLine right now to see the top 2018 World Series picks from the advanced computer that simulates every game 10,000 times, and find out.

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